Downing Street Secret Memo
The Evidence We Need to End the Bush Presidency
Those who resist-
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A wide coalition demanding that Congress adopt a Resolution of Inquiry to see if there are grounds for impeachment of George W. Bush
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Tom Joad has the goods on George W. Bush.
All the info you need to convince most reasonable people that it is time to end the reign of George W. Bush, and to bring him & his cohorts to justice.
There is little doubt that a crime was committed by the U.S. & British authorities in commencing a war of aggression against a sovereign state for bogus reasons. However, there was not a "smoking gun" but rather a mountain of circumstantial evidence. Until now. If all goes well, if there is any justice left in the United States, this memo will become widely known here as it is already known in Europe, and the crimes described therein will be the basis for charges of impeachment brought against President Bush. This will take patience, persistence, and much effort on the part of ordinary people, but it must be done. Our action is the only thing that will end the illegal occupation of Iraq, and prevent a similar war in the very near future.
This memo (really minutes of a meeting) was written by British national security aide Matthew Rycroft based on notes that he took during a July 2002 meeting - eight months before Bush started the war. The meeting included Prime Minister Tony Blair, a group of his advisers and Richard Dearlove, the head of Britain's intelligence service who had only a few days before met with Bush administration officials.
The memo quoted Dearlove saying that the Bush people wanted to remove Saddam militarily and that the intelligence and facts were being "fixed" to justify that.
Below is the Full Text of the Downing Street Memo, also known as the "Rycroft Memo".
Read here for an article by Ray McGovern on the "Fixed Facts" in the Memo, and what this means.
Another commentary by Greg Palast can be found here.
And while the Democratic leadership has been mostly silent on the issue 89 House members have signed a letter authored by Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) calling on President Bush to answer questions about the issues it brings up. Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco has most notably not signed Conyers' letter. [Update: She has now signed the letter, but still supports the occupation.] She has also recently voted against a timid resolution that asked that a date be fixed to bring the troops home. Expect to see actions confronting Pelosi on these issues discussed here. A planned action will take place at Pelosi's office on Monday, September 26th.
Remember, the same Bush administration that was obsessed with regime change in Iraq had key advisors that at an earlier time had urged military aid to Saddam during the bloodiest time of his career, during the Iran/Iraq war. See the story on Daniel Pipes .
Note: Neither the Bush or Blair regimes have denied the authenticity of this memo (minutes). It was originally released to the Sunday London Times.
cc: Defence Secretary, Foreign Secretary, Attorney-General, Sir Richard Wilson, John Scarlett, Francis Richards, CDS, C, Jonathan Powell, Sally Morgan, Alastair Campbell
IRAQ: PRIME MINISTER'S MEETING, 23 JULY
Copy addressees and you met the Prime Minister on 23 July to discuss Iraq.
This record is extremely sensitive. No further copies should be made. It should be shown only to those with a genuine need to know its contents.
John Scarlett summarised the intelligence and latest JIC assessment. Saddam's regime was tough and based on extreme fear. The only way to overthrow it was likely to be by massive military action. Saddam was worried and expected an attack, probably by air and land, but he was not convinced that it would be immediate or overwhelming. His regime expected their neighbours to line up with the US. Saddam knew that regular army morale was poor. Real support for Saddam among the public was probably narrowly based.
C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime's record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action.
CDS said that military planners would brief CENTCOM on 1-2 August, Rumsfeld on 3 August and Bush on 4 August.
The two broad US options were:
(a) Generated Start. A slow build-up of 250,000 US troops, a short (72 hour) air campaign, then a move up to Baghdad from the south. Lead time of 90 days (30 days preparation plus 60 days deployment to Kuwait).
(b) Running Start. Use forces already in theatre (3 x 6,000), continuous air campaign, initiated by an Iraqi casus belli. Total lead time of 60 days with the air campaign beginning even earlier. A hazardous option.
The US saw the UK (and Kuwait) as essential, with basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus critical for either option. Turkey and other Gulf states were also important, but less vital. The three main options for UK involvement were:
(i) Basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus, plus three SF squadrons.
(ii) As above, with maritime and air assets in addition.
(iii) As above, plus a land contribution of up to 40,000, perhaps with a discrete role in Northern Iraq entering from Turkey, tying down two Iraqi divisions.
The Defence Secretary said that the US had already begun "spikes of activity" to put pressure on the regime. No decisions had been taken, but he thought the most likely timing in US minds for military action to begin was January, with the timeline beginning 30 days before the US Congressional elections.
The Foreign Secretary said he would discuss this with Colin Powell this week. It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force.
The Attorney-General said that the desire for regime change was not a legal base for military action. There were three possible legal bases: self-defence, humanitarian intervention, or UNSC authorisation. The first and second could not be the base in this case. Relying on UNSCR 1205 of three years ago would be difficult. The situation might of course change.
The Prime Minister said that it would make a big difference politically and legally if Saddam refused to allow in the UN inspectors. Regime change and WMD were linked in the sense that it was the regime that was producing the WMD. There were different strategies for dealing with Libya and Iran. If the political context were right, people would support regime change. The two key issues were whether the military plan worked and whether we had the political strategy to give the military plan the space to work.
On the first, CDS said that we did not know yet if the US battleplan was workable. The military were continuing to ask lots of questions.
For instance, what were the consequences, if Saddam used WMD on day one, or if Baghdad did not collapse and urban warfighting began? You said that Saddam could also use his WMD on Kuwait. Or on Israel, added the Defence Secretary.
The Foreign Secretary thought the US would not go ahead with a military plan unless convinced that it was a winning strategy. On this, US and UK interests converged. But on the political strategy, there could be US/UK differences. Despite US resistance, we should explore discreetly the ultimatum. Saddam would continue to play hard-ball with the UN.
John Scarlett assessed that Saddam would allow the inspectors back in only when he thought the threat of military action was real.
The Defence Secretary said that if the Prime Minister wanted UK military involvement, he would need to decide this early. He cautioned that many in the US did not think it worth going down the ultimatum route. It would be important for the Prime Minister to set out the political context to Bush.
(a) We should work on the assumption that the UK would take part in any military action. But we needed a fuller picture of US planning before we could take any firm decisions. CDS should tell the US military that we were considering a range of options.
(b) The Prime Minister would revert on the question of whether funds could be spent in preparation for this operation.
(c) CDS would send the Prime Minister full details of the proposed military campaign and possible UK contributions by the end of the week.
(d) The Foreign Secretary would send the Prime Minister the background on the UN inspectors, and discreetly work up the ultimatum to Saddam.
He would also send the Prime Minister advice on the positions of countries in the region especially Turkey, and of the key EU member states.
(e) John Scarlett would send the Prime Minister a full intelligence update.
(f) We must not ignore the legal issues: the Attorney-General would consider legal advice with FCO/MOD legal advisers.
(I have written separately to commission this follow-up work.)
(Rycroft was a Downing Street foreign policy aide)